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Many Fear Mideast Instability Could Lead To Soaring Oil Prices

Bad Credit Credit Creditres Jacques Torres, host of the "Watch Chocolate" TV show on the Food Network, does not seem to have the type of job that would lead him to worry about a war in Iraq. After all, he is consumed by creating chocolates. But Mr. Torres, who owns a chocolate factory and store on Water Street in the Dumbo section of Brooklyn, says the prospect of instability in the Middle East leading to higher oil prices has been on his mind lately.

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Bad Consolidation Credit Debt "I did not know this until I started my own business and went crazy with the numbers," he said one recent afternoon while surrounded by 45-foot-long ovens in the chocolate factory that carries his name. "I pay more for operation costs than for food costs. I cannot afford to see the price of oil rise much."

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Bad Company Credit Repair Mr. Torres is among thousands of business owners and residents in the New York region who are carefully watching oil prices as winter approaches. The Northeast is the nation's biggest consumer of Middle Eastern oil primarily because of the combination of a large, dense population and the fact that it is a place where natural gas is less commonly used.

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Bad Card Credit Credit Oil prices have also been traditionally higher in the Northeast than in much of the rest of the country, because of a high demand and a sparse number of large refineries. Crude oil most of it pumped from the ground in the Middle East, Nigeria or Venezuela is refined in places with a glut of refineries like the Gulf Coast states. Then it is shipped north through pipelines and distributed locally in tractor trailers, barges and other expensive forms of transportation.

buyout activity. Why Slowdown Fears Aren't Denting Oil Prices Given fears of a U.S. slowdown, are fat oil profits about to end Experts say a sharp and sustained fall in oil prices would be unlikely unless the malaise infected Asia and the Middle East, rising demand.

Bad Car Credit Loan "The Northeast is the largest heating oil consumer in the country, and historically it has not had access to natural gas," said Aaron Brady, a senior oil analyst at Energy Security Analysis, a research firm that forecasts the markets for petroleum, natural gas and power.

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Bad Credit Loan Mortgage All of this means that a spike in crude oil prices worldwide could have a fast and furious impact, causing costs to rise more sharply in the Northeast than in other parts of the country.

Auto Bad Credit Loan This alarms people like Mr. Torres, who say it is time to brace for higher prices. Some like Mr. Torres fear a repeat of 2000, when high crude oil prices sent the cost of petroleum products from jet fuel and gasoline to home heating oil and petroleum-based plastic bags skyrocketing.

Bad Credit Mortgage Refinance This time, worries are not just based on the potential for harsh winter weather or the so-called war premium that could raise oil costs if the United States invades Iraq. The concerns also stem from a decision in January by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to slow down production because of a weakened economy and a drop in jet fuel purchases after Americans and Europeans stopped flying as frequently.

Bad Credit Refinance "This could be awfully bad for bakeries, factories and other food-related businesses," said Mr. Torres, who is also the dean of the French Culinary Institute of New York.

Bad Credit Mortgage Second Business leaders say that while they dread the possibility of a war in Iraq, they are hopeful it would not happen before late January, when prices typically begin to drop.

Bad Credit Loan Student Mr. Brady, the oil analyst, said that the United States does not need Iraqi oil, but that the real concern is "that Saddam Hussein lobs a couple of missiles at some Gulf states."

Bad Card Credit But some energy experts said that if a war in Iraq happened soon it might be a blessing in disguise for the Northeast energy markets particularly if it is over quickly.

Bad Credit Financing The uncertain climate worries people like Tracy Coddington, a secretary at Hudson Valley Oil Supply in Lake Katrine, N.Y., an Ulster County town about 100 miles north of Manhattan.

Bad Credit Home Loan Mortgage Normally, customers call the oil company for repairs to their home heating systems at this time of year. But the normal routine has changed, Ms. Coddington said last week, because of the situation in Iraq. Now, more than a month ahead of normal, many people are calling to get their home oil tanks filled.

Bad Credit Loan People "I know a lot of people are calling, and they are worried about it," she said. "So they are trying to fill their tanks as quick as possible or get their tanks topped off. The last couple of weeks have been a little bit more crazy than usual."

Bad Card Credit Credit People Mr. Brady said "saber rattling" has already driven wholesale prices up. Home heating oil prices in New York, for example, rose 1 percent in September, to $1.29 per gallon. Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, has asked the Bush administration to take steps, including tapping into America's reserve supply of oil, to ensure that crude oil prices do not rise even more in the event of a war against Iraq.

Bad Credit Guaranteed Loan Still, some people, like Steve Hiscox, are not that worried. Mr. Hiscox uses a wood stove to warm his home in Oneonta, N.Y., a rural town of 11,000 residents a little more than 40 miles northwest of Catskill Park. Mr. Hiscox, who runs a fence-building company from his home office, says he keeps the wood stove burning all day from December to March and uses his oil furnace only when it gets extremely cold.

Bad Credit Refinancing "Up this way, there is a lot of firewood a lot of people burn it," Mr. Hiscox said. "I don't get real excited about the price of oil. I would rather put my energy into worrying about other things."

Bad Credit Equity Home Loan Crude oil inventories from the summer were high because it was so unseasonably warm, and most experts thought the market would be flooded come winter, said Thomas Bentz, senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodities. But the OPEC reductions have kept growth flat and left the Northeast with just about enough heating oil for an average winter.

Bad Credit Loan Payday Besides any supply problems that could be caused by a war in the Middle East, Mr. Bentz said, a particularly tough winter could almost equally ensure shortages.

Bad Credit Repair "If the weather turns cold very early in the season we could end up drawing the inventories down early, and we could have much higher prices in the country," he said.

Bad Credit Home Loan Uk Ms. Coddington, of Hudson Oil Supply, said she was not concerned herself until she started to see spikes in the prices her company was getting charged by suppliers. She said she had her home tank filled last week "because I see the prices on slips we get every day from the oil company saying how much they are charging, and it's going up and up and up."

2nd Bad Credit Mortgage By Jayson Blair
New York Times - 10/9/2002

Topic: Petroleum Industry

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